Israel’s strikes damage Iran’s nuclear program but leave key facilities intact, risking global escalation

• Israel attacked Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, killing top scientists but leaving key facilities like Fordow and uranium stockpiles intact.
• The strike avoided Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium at Isfahan, likely to prevent radiological contamination.
• Underground centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow survived, preserving Iran’s enrichment capabilities.
• Experts warn Israel’s gamble may provoke Iran to accelerate covert nuclear efforts.
• The attack risks global backlash, isolating Israel while failing to cripple Iran’s nuclear program.

In a bold but risky move, Israel launched a devastating attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities early Friday, targeting the Natanz enrichment site and killing top nuclear scientists, yet much of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remains operational. Although the strikes inflicted significant damage, Israel deliberately avoided hitting Iran’s main uranium stockpile at Isfahan, likely to prevent radiological contamination. The underground centrifuges at Natanz and the heavily fortified Fordow facility also survived largely unscathed.

The attack, which killed key scientists like Mohammad Mehdi Tehranji and Fereydoun Abbasi, continues Israel’s long-standing campaign to cripple Iran’s nuclear expertise. But with Tehran’s core capabilities still intact, Israel may have provoked a dangerous escalation with little strategic gain, further isolating itself on the world stage amid ongoing backlash over its actions in Gaza.

Why did Israel avoid Iran’s uranium stockpile?

The most puzzling aspect of Israel’s strikes was its decision to spare Iran’s near-bomb-grade uranium stockpile at Isfahan. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had repeatedly warned that Iran’s enriched uranium posed an existential threat, claiming the regime could produce a nuclear weapon “within a few months.” Yet when Israeli jets and drones struck, they targeted only laboratories at Isfahan and not the fuel itself.

“We saw the fuel there just recently,” said Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), confirming that inspectors had verified the stockpile’s presence weeks earlier. Experts suggest Israel may have feared triggering a radiological disaster.

“The fact that Israel did not bomb a known uranium production facility at Isfahan suggests either that Bibi was worried the bombing might cause a radiological incident or that they actually think this will lead Iran to surrender its uranium stocks voluntarily,” said Jon Wolfsthal of the Federation of American Scientists. Bombing the stockpile could have released radioactive material, effectively turning Isfahan into a dirty bomb in a scenario Israel has historically avoided.

Underground facilities remain operational

Despite heavy damage to Natanz’s aboveground infrastructure, the underground centrifuges where Iran enriches uranium appear unharmed. Grossi confirmed that while there was “radiological and chemical contamination” at Natanz, the underground halls housing advanced centrifuges were not breached. Similarly, Fordow, which is buried half a mile beneath a mountain, remains impervious to conventional bunker-busting munitions.

“No damage has been seen” at Fordow, Grossi stated, despite Israeli attempts to strike the facility. Without U.S.-made super-bunker busters, Israel lacks the firepower to destroy Fordow, leaving Iran with a functional pathway to further enrich its uranium stockpile.

Israel’s high-risk gamble

By targeting scientists rather than facilities, Israel bet on crippling Iran’s nuclear know-how. Among the dead was Fereydoun Abbasi, a former head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, who survived a 2010 assassination attempt only to become more determined in advancing Iran’s program. His death, along with Tehranji’s, deals a blow to Iran’s nuclear leadership, but experts doubt it will halt progress.

“Israel’s intelligence is so intrusive that Iran has to worry about early discovery of any such effort,” said David Albright of the Institute for Science and International Security. Yet without destroying Fordow or the uranium stockpile, Iran could still accelerate its program covertly.

The strikes have also intensified global tensions. With Israel already facing condemnation over Gaza, the attack risks further alienating allies and provoking Iranian retaliation. Former Mossad official Sima Shine warned that Israel may have “legitimized and incentivized Tehran to rush into a covert effort to build a bomb.”

Israel’s strikes inflicted damage but failed to deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. By sparing critical facilities, Netanyahu may have avoided a radiological crisis, but it comes at the cost of leaving Iran’s nuclear capabilities largely intact. The world now faces an even more volatile Middle East, with Tehran emboldened to retaliate and Israel isolated diplomatically. Far from neutralizing the threat, these strikes may have only delayed and dangerously escalated the inevitable showdown over Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

Sources for this article include:

FreeWestMedia.com

NYTimes.com

WSJ.com

TheGuardian.com