Astronomers are bamboozled by the Fermi paradox: conservative estimates suggest that the galaxy should be brimming with extraterrestrial civilizations, yet they are (seemingly) nowhere to be found. Equally paradoxical is that astronomers continue to search for extraterrestrial civilizations at the risk of our own demise.(1)
Professor Matthew Bailes at the Swinburne University of Technology is at the forefront of Australia’s efforts to find extraterrestrials. He is responsible for detecting signs of intelligent life on other worlds.(2) Despite his efforts, however, Bailes warns that a close encounter with the third kind might not be a good idea.
“I think we should think very carefully before we reply to a signal received from outer space.” Bailes told sources. “The history of weak civilizations contacting more advanced civilizations is not a happy one,” he added.(3)
Stephen Hawking, who has backed the $100 million scheme to find intelligent life, expressed similar concerns. “If aliens visit us, the outcome would be much as when Columbus landed in America, which didn’t turn out well for the Native Americans,” Hawking said in a documentary for the Discovery Channel.(4)
On the other hand, Hawking warns that aggression will lead to our downfall. Hostility to outsiders could quite literally trigger a nuclear war, leading to the extinction of the human species. The acclaimed scientist has gone on record stating humanity will not survive the next 1,000 years if it does not explore other planets.
These remarks provoke the curious question, “How many advanced extraterrestrial civilizations become extinct because of the technologies they created?”
Answering this question isn’t easy. Astronomers utilize the Drake Equation in an effort to calculate the number of communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy. The problem with the Drake Equation is that there are several unknown variables.
To start, astronomers do not know how likely it is that intelligent life would naturally develop. Judging from the fossil record, however, the odds of intelligent life developing naturally is low. Eyes, for example, have evolved independently forty times.(5) Wings, on the other hand, have evolved independently only four times.(6) Intelligence, however, appears to have evolved only once.
Nor do astronomers know how long advanced civilizations last. A somber possibility about why astronomers have not found intelligent life is that advanced civilizations self-destruct before they are capable of colonizing other worlds.(7)
Furthermore, scientists do not know whether life itself is rare or commonplace. According to the most general definition of the term, an entity is “alive” if it is capable of self-replicating. Scientists don’t know what gave rise to the first self-replicating molecule. It could be that the universe regularly produces life, in which case the odds of intelligent life existing elsewhere are high. On the other hand, if the origin of life was an incredibly rare event, then the odds that the universe containing intelligent life are low. If this is true, scientists would be in the awkward position of looking for a theory about the origin of life that is intrinsically improbable.
Whether intelligent life is rare or commonplace, not all scientists share Bailes’ and Hawking’s belief that extraterrestrial civilizations would be hostile to people. Astronomer Martin Reese, for example, says that extraterrestrial civilization may know we are here, but choose to not wage our extinction.(3) It could be that propensities for aggression gradually dwindle as civilizations become more advanced.
The truth is, scientists do not know whether extraterrestrial civilizations would be hostile or amiable to human beings. These questions remain a mystery as astronomers send radio waves into space. We are quite literally fumbling the dark.
Sources include:
(2) Swinburne.edu.au
(4) Space.com
(6) ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
(7) NYtimes.com
