Iraq on steroids: How Trump’s Iran War Is becoming America’s new Quagmire

• The United States has abandoned negotiations with Iran and shifted from a policy of immediate military destruction to one of slow economic strangulation, a move that signals the beginning of what military analysts increasingly describe as an unwinnable war with chilling parallels to Iraq.
• President Donald Trump’s abrupt halt of the bombing campaign near the Strait of Hormuz late last month came amid stunning admissions from top military brass that the American arsenal has been critically depleted, with precision munitions and interceptor missiles running dangerously low and the list of viable targets near the strategic waterway exhausted.
• This strategic retreat, reported by CNN on Tuesday, reveals a military machine that fired its best shots and failed to achieve its objectives.
• We’re now facing the grim reality of a prolonged conflict against a nation far more formidable than Iraq ever was.
• The White House’s pivot from what one source described as “going from ‘hammer Iran ASAP’ to ‘strangle them’ over time” represents a desperate improvisation for an administration that miscalculated Iran’s resilience and now finds itself trapped in a conflict with no clear exit strategy.
• The June 17 memorandum of understanding, which provided a 60-day window for peace talks, expired Monday amid mutual accusations of bad faith.
• Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, creating economic shockwaves worldwide.
• The strategy shift mirrors the Iraq War’s false pretenses and predicts a similar quagmire with far higher stakes.

The depleted arsenal and the illusion of military supremacy

A bloviating narcissistic president can talk a big game, but the revelation that the United States military has largely exhausted its stockpiles of precision-guided munitions and interceptor missiles should alarm every American citizen who has been told that the nation’s military might is unmatched. The five-week bombing campaign against Iran, launched jointly with Israel on February 28, consumed billions of dollars worth of ordnance while achieving none of the stated objectives of crippling Iran’s military capabilities or forcing Tehran back to the negotiating table. Pentagon officials reportedly warned Trump that continuing the current pace of operations was unsustainable, forcing the administration to reconsider its approach.

This logistical reality undermines the entire narrative of American military invincibility that has sustained decades of interventionist foreign policy. Unlike Iraq in 2003, which possessed a shattered military and no meaningful air defense capabilities, Iran entered this conflict with advanced Russian-made S-300 and domestically produced Bavar-373 air defense systems, underground missile production facilities, and a demonstrated ability to absorb punishment while continuing to retaliate. Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh has directly threatened American bases across the Middle East, and Tehran’s ballistic missile arsenal can reach U.S. installations throughout the region, threatening thousands of American troops with a single launch sequence.

The blockade that became a boomerang

When Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz shortly after the joint U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign began in late February, the move was dismissed in Washington as an act of desperation that would quickly be reversed under military pressure. Instead, the closure has become the central front of this conflict, with the U.S. Navy declaring its own blockade in April and guiding ships through routes that Iran considers illegal, a tacit admission that the United States cannot simply reopen the waterway by force.

The economic consequences of this standoff have been catastrophic and are nowhere near fully realized. The Strait of Hormuz handles around 25 percent of global seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas trade, and its closure has already contributed to oil price volatility that threatens to push the global economy into recession. Energy analyst Greg Priddy notes that Iran seems to be seeking a path back to negotiations with Trump, preferring not to strike Arab neighbors, but desperation breeds recklessness when a nation concludes it has nothing left to lose.

Iran’s key negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, delivered a stark message on Tuesday when he declared that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States lifts its blockade, releases Iran’s frozen assets, and removes sanctions. This position represents a hardening of Iranian demands, not a softening, and suggests that Tehran believes time is on its side. The expiration of the June 17 memorandum of understanding, which provided a 60-day window to negotiate a definitive peace deal, further dims prospects for diplomatic resolution, with Ghalibaf denouncing Washington’s “theater diplomacy” and charging that the United States has been issuing unacceptable ultimatums rather than engaging in genuine negotiation.

US doesn’t gain control over Iran’s nuclear program either

Iran’s nuclear program adds another combustible element to this crisis. Decades of U.S. intelligence assessments, including a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate, concluded that Tehran halted its weapons program in 2003, and more recent evaluations reaffirm that Iran is not actively developing nuclear weapons. Ali Larijani, an aide to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned in April that an attack by the United States or Israel would force Iran to reconsider its nuclear stance, declaring that Iran would move toward weapons capability because it must defend itself. The irony is stark: a war launched under the pretense of preventing Iranian nuclear weapons may well produce exactly that outcome.

Trump’s abandonment of negotiations, confirmed in his Tuesday Truth Social post declaring that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” while insisting that the blockade of Iranian ports remains “in full force and effect,” leaves the United States with no diplomatic off-ramp and no military path to victory. The strategy of strangulation assumes that economic pressure will eventually force Iranian capitulation, but this assumption ignores Iran’s four decades of surviving sanctions, its strategic patience, and its demonstrated willingness to absorb suffering rather than surrender sovereignty.

The parallels to Iraq are impossible to ignore, but the differences are more important. Iraq was a devastated nation emerging from a decade of sanctions, with a fractured military and no meaningful ability to project power beyond its borders. Iran is a regional power with advanced missile technology, the ability to close a critical global chokepoint, and the capacity to make any occupying force pay an unspeakable price in blood and treasure. The United States spent eight years fighting a counterinsurgency in Iraq, losing thousands of soldiers and trillions of dollars before withdrawing in failure. A war against Iran would make those eight years look like a skirmish.

Sources include:

RT.com

AmericanProgress.org

Yahoo.com